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Many factors have supported the reduction in armed conflicts including the withering of proxy wars, UN sponsored peace processes and economic development. Research by the Human Security Report demonstrates that peace negotiations and cease-fire agreements reduce violent conflict even when they fail.

Six peace agreements were signed in and four were agreed in Over recent years, despite common perceptions, we do seem to have learned how to create, keep and enforce the peace. The laws of armed conflict and human rights laws along with the international criminal court, war crime tribunals, economic and military sanctions and domestic justice commissions serve to protect civilians.

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Although nuclear weapons possession or use, outlawed for most countries, are yet to be globally forbidden, international law has proscribed the possession and use of devastating weapons systems such as chemical and biological weapons, antipersonnel landmines, cluster munitions and blinding lasers. Academic disciplines that study war and peace have developed a rich body of research that helps us understand how wars start and how they can be prevented or ended. No approach or system is perfect, of course, but we understand how resource scarcity, environmental change, economic stress, refugee flows and racism all fuel the engendering of conflict.


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We understand the importance of history and culture, the role of gender and the ways in which different political systems exacerbate or diminish the risks of conflict. Most significantly, we realized that the risks of inter-state wars are rising and a major inter-state war cannot be ruled out in the near future. It is time that we put aside complacency and become more realistic about war and peace and ourselves.

We know a great deal about how to prevent war. We owe it to all others who sacrificed their lives and families to put into action all that we have learned and ensure peace in Europe, the Middle East and Asia for forthcoming generations. Otherwise, there will be few left to hear our excuses. World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with our Terms of Use.

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This article is published in collaboration with Chatham House. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum. I accept. International Security Fragility, Violence and Conflict How to prevent World War 3 In the past years we have learned a great deal about how to prevent conflict. Predictions for What if we get things right? Read the series. Most Popular. More on the agenda.

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Explore context. He sought to silence all dissidents, tame the media and destroy the system of checks and balances. Nevertheless, he was unable to see that Turkey was not Russia, nor Iran, nor China. Turkey has no oil or natural gas deposits. Its democratic experience dates back to the Ottoman Empire era.

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When a migration influx from the Middle East to the West triggered xenophobia, the new nationalist approach found an environment in which to flourish. Westerners had terrible memories of nationalism, especially with the far right and racist versions. To rebrand nationalism, some populist politicians substituted patriotism for the term. But who could guarantee that a patriotism based on collectivism and focused on similarities while excluding differences would not lead to racism and far right sentiment?


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So let me rephrase the initial dilemma: a globalism that brought an easier life with the help of technology but failed to provide peace to all segments of society, or a patriotism that is always on the verge of becoming xenophobia and racism. This is quite frankly a new kind of world war. Will nations walk towards a fascism sustained by the will of the people, or will they improve administrative structures, making them truly based on social equality and inclusive democracy?

We will apparently observe the struggle between these two lines of thought throughout the next decade.

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There will be alarming attacks from the extremes. We will probably see mass frenzy under the influence of never-ending conflict. Some turns of events will surprise us in the meantime. In any case, everything will be settled in the end. There will be costs, but humanity will reach a new synthesis out of what it has, out of patriotism and globalism. The worst case scenario would be a bloody conflict between nations, causing millions of deaths and irreparable harm. But the world cannot afford to repeat 20 th century mistakes. Conflicts will resume, leading the emergence of carbon-copy, authoritarian regimes, and these regimes will be costly due to their irrational policies.


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Thus, extreme sentiments will be reduced in time. True believers who devoted themselves blindly to one political party, one ideology, or even one country, will not see the future. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

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Turkish composer says he was denied award for supporting opposition hashtag. UEFA opens investigation into Turkish footballer for military salute in game.